In Memoriam

This has been a pretty lousy week. In fact, to paraphrase Homer Simpson, this week has sucked worse than anything that has ever sucked before in the history of things that suck. The first is tragic, the rest is trivial in comparison but factored in has made things even worse. The tragic part is truly, deeply tragic. The young man who took the full time position that I gave up last month was killed Sunday night while riding his motorcycle to work. He apparently tried to pass a car on a two-lane highway and was struck head on by an oncoming vehicle. I didn't know him outside of work but he seemed to be a really nice kid. He was only 20. When I first found out about it Wednesday when I returned to work, beside being completely shocked, I felt responsible in a way since if I hadn't quit that positon, he would not have been on the road at that time. I know that's faulty logic but I still felt guilty. The rest of the week, as I said, is trivial in comparison but it didn't help that's for sure. Yesterday I got out of class at 4pm and when I returned to my car, I found that, for the third time, someone had broken into my car. They smashed the rear passenger window. They didn't take anything because, since I learned my lesson the first time, there wasn't anything in the car to take. They were probably scared off by the car alarm, so they didn't even wind up opening the front doors (they were still locked). It was either that or they were just being mean (which is what a few people have told me since I still have my American plates). It's costing us another $300 today to get the window replaced. I've also had a bad time in one of my classes this week because one of the textbooks has been impossible to get and I had a quiz Thursday and I didn't have the material since I didn't have the book. The professor annouced in class that that was just all too bad and we'd have to make do (they apparently only ordered 40 books for a class of 100! nice) I found a copy in the US from amazon.com (they didn't even have one in amazon.ca) and they only had 2 copies in stock, so I got the next to last one. So not a lot of fun in my world this week. I'll try to entertain you again next week.

Politics 101, Part 3

It's the debates, stupid. You may realize the above statement as a play on the very famous James Carville line from the Clinton campaigns- "It's the economy, stupid" (which has also been credited to Mrs. Clinton, as well). It's the economy stupid has taken over most political campaigns since 1992 as the the relative health of the US economy is generally seen as the point where most interest of the electorate resides. Presidential administrations rise and fall with the economy. But as with just about every other aspect of political life, all has changed since September 11, 2001. "The Economy" is no longer the single biggest component of campaigns. "The Economy" must now be viewed through the prism of the international war on terror. Domestic expenditures, tax policy, even market restructuring and growth, all are effected, and controlled in some cases, by terrorism. Whether you believe or not, that the Bush agenda had, long before 9/11, squandered the health of the economy with three successive tax cuts, you cannot deny the implications that 9/11 had, and has continued to have. Neither Iraq policy, as divisive as it has been, nor the occupation and reconstruction effort, as poorly managed as it has been, has brought the Bush administration down. In contrast Bush holds small but stable leads in almost every poll while those very polls tell us the electorate doesn't necessarily think the country in on the right path, or that Bush necessarily deserves re-election. Why the disconnect? First, the Kerry campaign is in free-fall. It has been unable to beat back the negative air campaign waged by Bush-Cheney and their surrogates. While Kerry leaning surrogates have spent the past year tearing Bush apart, the Kerry attacks are more recent- therefore more fresh in the minds of the voters (at least the few independent voters left undecided). Second, the electorate is smarter (as it usually is) than politicians give them credit. They realize the complexities in foreign policy and the relationship it has on domestic policy. In the age of global commerce AND global terror, foreign and domestic policy are now forever bound together. Americans get it, though they may not like it and wish it were otherwise. So is it over? As I've said repeatedly, the closeness of the election and the polarization of the public over the direction of policy make it too close to call. But time for Kerry is clearing running out. He has one opportunity (or rather three) to make his final case to the people who are on the fence but leaning to Bush. It's the debates, stupid. Kerry must do the following in the three debates with George Bush: Convince the public they are safe with him as commander-in-chief Prove he has the ability to make a decision and stand by it Expose the Bush policy in Iraq as an abject failure Explain his vision and the need for change The bad news for Kerry is that it isn't an easy checklist. The Bush campaign has been most successful at portraying Kerry as feckless or worse, dangerous, as a president. Add to this that Americans don't want to believe that Iraq is a failure because it threatens not only stability in the Middle East, but the chances for real peace throughout the world and the eventual eradication of al-Qaida. The good news for Kerry is that he still has the chance to make the arguement and this time will have Bush alone, without the elaborately produced spin of the Rove machine to bail out the president if he falters. Kerry must put Bush to the test. Kerry has had to spend the last several months defending himself, his decisions, his record. Now is the time for Kerry to push Bush to defend his, in a live and vulnerable setting with no aircraft carriers and flight suits to distract. The risk for Kerry is that Bush actually makes the case, but at that point the election is lost anyway, therefore the rewards outweigh the risks. Kerry must force the president to look the country in the eye, as it were, and defend not just the invasion of Iraq, but the occupation. Kerry must not get caught in the rhetorical trap that Bush's strategy team is setting (and has been). When Bush makes hay out of Kerry's support for the war in its initial stages, Kerry must answer back that he trusted the president, and the president failed that trust. When Bush attacks Kerry's 'flip-flops' on Iraq, Kerry must hit back and the many flip-flops of the Bush administration on everything from Homeland Security legislation to his call for a Constitutional amendment on gay marriage and everything in between. He needs to challenge Bush can lay claim to a healthy economy with so many job losses and the deficit higher than ever. It won't be easy, but it is likely his last chance.

My Head Is Exploding Edition

This week has seemed twice as long as a normal week. I think I've discovered the new 'metric' week or something. Last weekend was pretty great. We had our softball tournament on Saturday and made it to the championship game only to fall short in the end. Even though we lost, I felt pretty well about my play at least because in the two games I went 8 for 8 and played pretty well defensively. After not playing or practicing for over a year it took me a few games to get back into the swing (literally) of things and I'm sure that being able to play a full season next year will mean I'll have more fun. After the games we went back to Mom and Dad Snyder's place for a nice bbq- where I had one of the best steaks I've ever eaten in my life! We stayed over Saturday night because Dad and I were to play golf on Sunday morning. I had a pretty good round of golf actually and followed it up by watching some football. Monday arrived and back to school to go to two new classes. First up was Thinking About The USA (which is a requirement class for my American Studies major). While we were waiting for the class to start, the Prof played a selection of music on a small little CD player. There's nothing better than sitting in class and hearing The Band and The Allman Brothers!! I'm going to like this prof! After that class, came Historiography which discusses the theoretical analysis of historical research. This is as close to a post-graduate class as you can get in an undergraduate setting. I could tell looking around the room that most of the people in their were having their minds blown away- that sort of phased-out expression? The last new class of the week (Tuesday) was Conflict and Cooperation, a seminar on international foreign relations in the Cold War era. This class, though being a 3rd year class which generally have smaller enrolment (notice the Canadian spelling of enrolment!) had over 190 people in it...whew it was hot, stuffy, and crowded. So I had by now had the introduction to all my courses for the coming year. I think my head is exploding...but it feels nice :) I've spent nearly $800 on textbooks thus far and there's still a few I haven't purchased yet...whew...so my wallet is exploding also. This week I went back to the freezer on a part-time basis (Wednesday and Friday). I think I'll handle this schedule a great deal better than the last because I get a good night's sleep in my own bed and wake up like a normal person again. No new pictures this week, though hopefully I'll have some of the new and improved living room soon. Shell is busily working on painting it as I write this. There's also another edition of Politics 101 you can read by clicking HERE or in the right hand column. Until the next dispatch!

Politics 101, Part 2

There's a new batch of polls out that show two different faces of the election. Most have Bush with a lead of about 5 point, including leads in major swing states such as Florida and Ohio. Several other polls have the race closer. I still lean to the idea that the election is up for grabs, though Bush seems a great deal stronger than he did two months ago. This week's question- Laura asks "What did you think of this memo that CBS got ahold of, purporting to be about Bush missing a medical exam, etc., etc.? Fake or not?" My gut feeling is that the memos, at least in the form received by CBS are not original documents. This of course is very bad for CBS News and, though association, bad for the Kerry campaign in a way. With that said, I found some of the statements from the Bush camp rather intriguing in that there were no REAL denials, only conditional ones. First Lady Laura Bush herself, in her first public statements on the issue, made an equivocation in her 'denials'. She stated that the documents were "more than likely forgeries". This statements is a far cry from "I know for sure none of what is stated in the purported documents is true". The latter would be a firm denial, the former makes it seem like while these documents 'could' be forgeries, there's enough of a possibility that these issues happened. This isn't the first time Bush has made statements of equivocation. In the 2000 campaign, when questions arose whether Bush had used cocaine, Bush gave extremely legalistic answers about the time frame in question. Here is an excerpt from Al Franken's "Lies and the Lying Liars Who Tell Them: A Fair and Balanced Look at the Right"- At first during the campaign Bush refused on principle to answer questions about cocaine. Then, because he was applying for a federal job (president) he had to fill out a form that asked if had [sic] used illegal drugs in the past seven years. Bush voluntarily told the press he was able to answer no. A clever reporter asked whether he could have given the same answer when his father was president and federal forms asked about drug use for the prior fifteen years. "Uh, let's see here...Yes, I could have," Bush said after a pause. Then, when asked again if he had ever used cocaine, Bush refused to give an answer". Now, I don't know about you, but to me, if one boils this exchange down to the bottom line, Bush is actually answering that whether he used cocaine depends on 'when' you ask him...in other words, I guess, it depends on what the meaning of the word 'is' is. So did Bush use his father's influence to get into the National Guard and therefore get out of going to Vietnam? Most probably. Did he then disappear for a time while assigned to an Alabama base? Maybe What is clear is that he lost his flying status because he failed to take the required physical. Why? Well to me there's only three possible reasons. 1) He forgot. 2) He ignored it. 3) He didn't want to. None of these answers is a good one. But then again none of these to me are of vital importance. When answers go far afield, perhaps it is up to us, the electorate, to ask the proper questions. David Broder had a great piece in the Washington Post about this very subject. Here's an excerpt that really hits home. Broder asks us to ponder the situation in the spring of 2005, a few months after the new president is inaugurated, and where we may have wasted our time in Swift Boats and Alabama National Guard Units in the early 70s: What remains of real importance? Foremost is Iraq. Americans will still be fighting and dying there. Whether or not some approximation of an Iraqi election has been held, Americans will still be the only real security force facing an insurgency that condemns us as occupiers. That is what preoccupies the president the day after his inauguration. And in retrospect we realize that when we were choosing between George Bush and John Kerry, they should have been pressed much harder to explain what they will do now that we are stuck in an expanding guerrilla war in Iraq. They both had checkered histories on Iraq. Bush had taken the country to war on what turned out to be false premises and appeared oblivious for far too long to the challenges of a lengthy aftermath. Kerry's history was too incoherent for ready explanation -- an on-again, off-again endorsement and criticism of Bush policy that gave almost no clue to his convictions. We should have insisted that they clarify what they would do now -- not what they wish they had done back then. Iraq and its attendant problems should have been the only subject of the first televised debate. And we should not have let them shift to airy generalizations about being tough on terrorism. Terrorism is a real threat, but the argument about who is "tougher on terrorism" is a mug's game -- and it's not answered by pictures of a guy standing in the pit of what was once the World Trade Center or carrying a rifle in Vietnam. The second thing that remains important is Vladimir Putin -- and he is a powerful symbol. Because of Iraq, the United States' relationships with other countries around the world have been bent out of shape or suffered from neglect. If it is true, as is manifestly the case, that the United States has a vital interest in nurturing democracy in Russia, both capitalism and democracy in China, and cooperative relations with Europe -- and open trade with all of them -- then those relations need work. We should have asked Bush more about why he thought so many of them had gone sour, and we should have asked both Bush and Kerry how they planned to set them right. And the jump in Medicare premiums is important -- not only in its immediate impact on seniors' budgets, but as a reminder of our head-in-the-sand attitude toward the oncoming fiscal collision between the health care and retirement costs of the baby boomers, on one side, and our staggering budget deficits on the other. We let both Kerry and Bush dangle a string of new domestic goodies before our eyes, plus tax cuts for everybody (Bush) or almost everybody (Kerry), and never got a straight answer from either one on how to pay for the boomers' massively expensive retirement years. That would have been a good subject for a second debate. Then maybe we'd have known what we were doing with our votes.

Matriculation Baby, Matriculation

Well the week finally arrived and back to school I go. Wednesday evening I went to Matriculation Ceremony where I signed the register and officially joined Trinity College. I was extremely nervous and luckily Shelley was there to smile at me and keep me calm. We had to go separately since I had to meet at the Quad with the rest of the newbies and other Trinitrons to march to the theatre. We loosely gathered together and then at precisely 7:15 a bagpiper led us down the walkway. It was really quite amazing. As we walked through the doors, we were being greeted by a few of the academic dons and the one at my door mistook me for a parent (*sigh*), I had to explain that I was a STUDENT!!! Oh well. Once inside I tried to remain calm and I sat and waited for the procession of faculty to arrive. After the faculty arrived, the ceremony commenced. A great deal of the official parts were in Latin which thrilled my wife who took a few years of Latin. Midway through the ceremony we were ushered onstage and then signed the register officially joining Trinity College. After it was over, we went back to the Quad for some refreshments and I was able to introduce Shelley (and myself) to the Dean of Students. All in all a great night. Thursday morning I went to my first classes. 19th and 20th Century East Central Europe- I have a great professor, Dr. Piotr Wrobrel who is from Poland and has a great accent. He's got a great sense of humor and the class looks demanding but interesting. 20th Century American Diplomacy- I have two professors, one for the fall, one for the spring. Both were in class this week and will sort of be interchangeable. Dr. Carol Chin, is an American who recently moved here (like me) and Dr. William Walker is a prof I have for one of my Tuesday classes so it will be great to have him for two courses- he also has friends in Salt Lake so we are going to bond over our love of the Wasatch Mountains!!! Well I'm still working on some Politics 101 stuff (sorry Tara it's not ready yet...but I'm working on it). But this weekend is crammed. I've got tons of reading to do for next week, and I've got a softball tournament Saturday! Sunday is FOOTBALL...woohoo. Speaking of football, as a service to my readers (and for entertainment purposes only) I'll share one of my football betting cards with you (not the profits...what? you think I'm crazy? just the picks in case you are in to that sort of thing). I have it really nice since our house is two doors away from a little corner store where I can make my Pro-line plays each week. This week's card: TEN @ MIA take the Under of 38.5 BAL @ CLE take the Over of 37.5 JAX @ BUF take the Over of 35.5 DET @ CHI +/- 3 (if the either team wins by 3 or less) SEA @ NO take Seattle to win by 8+ SD @ HOU take Houston to win by 4+ If I win all 6 a $2 ticket earns $120.70 (ChaChing)

Politics 101, Part I

As I have said before I've received a couple of emails asking for me to answer some specific questions and offer some insights into the election this year. I'm going to attempt to do this as best as I can, trying not to bore people, tell you the obvious, or heap large amounts of my bias in my writing. Of course this is nearly impossible to carry off and likely you might find yourself, at various times, feeling bored, that I'm stating the obvious, and reading a Pro-Kerry leaflet...for this I apologize in advance. Also be forewarned that while I will try to be fairly regular and diligent in this mission, I have a full course load of History classes which require about 200 pages of reading per class each week (that's 1000 pages total folks), a part time job, two dogs that insist on playing, and a wife who despite everything still enjoys my company. So first things first, a few questions I received- Joni asks "What do you think about Swift Boat Veterans for Truth?" The short answer is Swift Boat...Veteran...For Truth- Two out of Three ain't bad! The longer answer is that it is easy to look to these ads as the cause of the current decline in Kerry's poll numbers, however I think that is a bit myopic. Kerry's decline began before this series of ads, though they do reinforce the Bush campaign's accusations that Kerry is inconsistent and vacillating. The ads also hit to the heart of some of the non-traditional Democratic support that Kerry had been picking up- Veterans Groups. At one point, Kerry was polling fairly close to President Bush with Veterans, but that has since slipped to a substantial lead for Bush. I don't by any means believe this election has been decided yet, though I admit things look bleak for the Kerry campaign at the moment. Recent polls have shown Bush with a lead between 7-10 points and pulling away from Kerry in close states that looked in play as recently as a month ago. Currently the Bush administration is muddling through in Iraq and the economy has signs of recovery, yet both of these factors are not on sure footing and disaster in one or the other (or both) can happen at any moment. Elections, especially presidential campaigns need to be viewed almost in segments. Bush certainly has won this round and Kerry has had a significantly poor month. I still believe this election is close and the debates will be the key "non-extraneous" factor in swinging it to one candidate or the other. I think the Bush administration is keenly aware of this as well, and this is why they are trying to limit the President's participation (last week the Bush campaign mulled pulling out of one of the three debates-the one with undecideds- citing fears that Bush detractors would place faux questioners in the audience). The Swift Boat Vets ads are by no means a new low in negative campaigning, though they are on a par, in my opinion, with some of the worst. We can never know for certain what transpired in the jungles and the rivers of Vietnam during Kerry's tour of duty. All that we can rely on is the written record of events- that on the surface support Kerry's version of events, and the members of Kerry's detail-who also verify the record. The version of events that the Swift Boat Vets maintain is an opinion, and one they are entitled to, but it should not be mistaken for 'facts'. Much has been made of Kerry's statements regarding his being in Cambodia at a certain point, which isn't supported by the record. This is of course because there would be no record of American troops in Cambodia at that time without an international incident. Next question Tara asks "What is a republican?" I am intrigued that you used the small 'r' republican, accidentally I'm sure, but as there is a difference between small 'r' republicanism and capital 'R' Republicanism and it is often lost on the non-American audience I wanted to address it as well. One of the biggest misunderstandings about American democracy is that it is a democracy at all- it isn't. In fact the American system is a Republic, a constitutional representative democracy but far from a pure democracy. This of course was the fundamental argument among the American Founding Fathers, how remote should individuals be from the power of government. While the Founders feared a government of aristocratic nobles they were just as fearful of the uneducated masses wielding power with little barrier to control of the government. Therefore is was the chief goal of the framers of the Constitution to create a structure that place power in representatives (some elected, some initially appointed- the Senate for a time was 'elected' by state legislatures) who would be, it was assumed, educated and serious men. This republican ideal was a drastic change from the landed aristocratic rule in Britain from which the new American public had just won its freedom. Capital 'R' Republicans refers to a political party. The original Republicans were not necessarily what we know today. Republicans in the early days of America were generally thought of as anti-Federalist (in fact Anti-Federalists are what you will normally see them called). These Republicans (or Anti-Federalists) were opposed to the strong centralization of a federal government (which was supported by you've probably guessed by now- the Federalists). While they supported the Constitution in the end, the Anti-Federalists (of which Jefferson was clearly the ideological father) pushed for the Bill of Rights as a protection for individuals and states against the federal government. As this early period of the US passed, the Republicans faded into the background (as did party politics to some extent). Of course party politics never went away, and the Republican Party that would come to the forefront that we know today (though not necessarily concurrent in ideology) became a power in the antebellum period. The Republican Party became the collection of smaller parties all with pieces of different ideologies, but generally in support of holding together the Union. Lincoln's victory as the Republican candidate for President in 1860 set the stage for the Civil War. The two party system that exists today is, in some respects, a result of this conflict. The antebellum Democratic Party was the dominant force in American politics, yet it fractured over slavery and secession, and would take decades before it would regain parity with the Republicans. That Republican Party was a progressive Republican Party, embodied by Theodore Roosevelt who broke up the Trusts, was an internationalist, a conservationist, and a president who wanted to expand the powers of the office. His successor in 1909, William Howard Taft was perhaps the first modern conservative Republican president, as we would define Republicans today. (In fact, the rift in the party between the progressives and the conservatives would lead to Roosevelt running as a third party candidate in 1912 and the election to Democrat Woodrow Wilson). Beginning with the 1920s, Republicanism became synonymous with fiscal conservatism and laissez-faire government. The hallmark of Republicanism in the middle years of the 20th century was opposition to Franklin Roosevelt's 'New Deal' and the expansionism of the Federal Government. The late 20th century Republican Party still had not solved its internecine divisions between progressives and conservatives. The conservative faction within the party would begin to take hold in the 1960s with the rise of the civil rights movement. Conservative Republicans were at odds with the Civil Rights Act for its intrusion into states rights and saw it as a further expansion of federal control. When many Southern Democrats left their party, the Republican Party, now ideologically controlled by Barry Goldwater, began to make inroads in the South. The slow shift of conservative dominance within the Republican Party would finally take hold in the late 1970s and early 1980s and with the election of Ronald Reagan in 1980, the conservative wing of the Republicans were firmly in charge. I believe, today's Republican Party is once again at a crossroads. It could be argued that there are now 3 factions within the GOP (Grand Old Party). The Moderate Republicans, the Fiscal Conservative Republicans, and the Social Conservative Republicans. While each group shares attributes of conservative ideology with the other, there are deep divides that threaten the stability of the party. Many Fiscal Conservatives are at odds with the Bush administration over its lack of discipline in budgetary matters, while Moderates are at odds with the move to a stricter socially conservative ideology. The forces within these factions are increasingly centrifugal, yet the Republicans remain in power. Yet for how much longer may be determined soon.

Home At Last

There's this old saw about needing a vacation from my vacation...this could not be more accurate. We had a very packed trip with lots of different things scheduled and lots of people to see. There just wasn't enough time to do it all, or to take some time to rest either. Not that I'm complaining because it beats being at 30-below and lifting heavy boxes. Of course the main reason for the trip was to see Christina and go to her dedication. From the moment we got into town my family was pretty much pushing the baby into our arms every second.
kisses  Not that we didn't love it mind you! But after a while all the talk of "test driving" a baby wears a little. She's a baby not a Saab :P Christina is still so tiny but she seems so strong and healthy. The service was great and I think everybody cried.
mmm....towels are yummy  We also got to spend time at Samantha's 11th birthday party. The fact that my first niece is now 11 is pretty frightening. I got to play a little golf (though I played really poorly) and Shell and I got to finally spend a bit of time at the Beach as well.
howdy  She shopped me to death...she does that sometimes. I played some poker (again poorly) at Scott's also which is something I dearly love to do. Dave and Missy were excellent hosts as always, Josh is growing like a weed, and Max the dog is a sweet puppy (though Dixie didn't think so...we still don't know what was up with her). We stayed an extra day and we had a very long drive home. Poor Dixie and Willow were great troopers and put up with an extra loaded car that I'm sure was uncomfortable.
did someone say "toy"?? 
dude, where's my house?  The response to the new TGIF format was really great. I've had a few questions (and a demand from Tara) that I explore a US Politics 101 type buildup to the election so look for another post soon and if you have any questions about things you don't quite understand (like how someone could actually vote for Rick Santorum?!?) just send them along. For now it is time to unpack- Cheers