The You Have Been Warned Edition

I thought the title was apt since I've finished the Electoral College post and combined it with my Presidential Election post to create one giant godzilla-like post called The Prediction Edition. The warning is because it is long and detailed, but I urge you to give it a peek, especially for the Canadians who might be interested on how the US system works. In other news, it is time to wish a very Happy Birthday to my mother-in-law Wendy Snyder, who is celebrating her birthday on Saturday!!! How much do Scorpios rule?! When I first met my wife's parents I know they looked at me and thought "what the heck is our daughter thinking?". Luckily for me they never let first (second , third or fourth) impressions be the final arbiter. They welcomed me into their close knit family and have been incredibly generous to me. Living far from home, I've come to rely on them for spiritual and moral support, love and kindness. They have given me that and so much more. To be around Mom Snyder when she is working on something (like preparing brunch for dozens of people on Christmas), is to stand close to a whirlwind. She's the sort of person who doesn't seem to rest until she's sure everyone has everything they need- it leaves you with a sense of awe. Happy Birthday Mom!! Now it also happens to be someone else's birthday in a few days too. That's right, your humble correspondent is having one as well on Wednesday. I mention it not for self-promotion but merely as a way of telling you that I had to get a new driver's license this week (and my first Ontario one). I was forced to give up my wonderful Utah license...the one that showed I actually had hair once. This week we will finally get the car all transferred over, and I will have to give up my Utah plates. This was of course something that should have been done awhile back but I think it was me jealously guarding my connections to Utah, a place that I adore so much. But to everything there is a season. Picture moment: Here's a new one of Dixie that has become a favorite Hopefully I'll have some Halloween pics next time. Until then...Cheers

The Prediction Edition

The post you've all (or maybe 2 of you) have been waiting for. The one where I give my prediction on the election. I must add a caveat at this point: anything is possible!!! I will actually give you several scenarios and then tell you which one I think is the most probable. First, since we have some non-Americans with us, a brief history of the Electoral College. The Electoral College is essentially a device created by the framers of the Constitution to remove the mass voting public one step from the selection of the executive AND also a salve to the small states whose votes they needed for ratification. The framers were not inclined to pure democracy which they believe could equate, at times, a form of mob rule. To mollify a potential passionate electorate, they created a system whereby voters actually choose representatives, or delegates (Electors) to vote for President and Vice-President. (In the early days of the Republic, Electors cast ballots for one individual- the person who received the most Electoral College votes was president and the runner-up was Vice President. Therefore in the first election George Washington won the presidency and John Adams was his vice-president. In the third election, after Washington's 2 terms, and by this point there was definite partisanship at work, Adams ran against Thomas Jefferson. Adams received the most votes and Jefferson as the runner up was his VP. This system was changed soon after to allow for separate votes for President and Vice-President so that "the ticket" would be elected as a whole). The amount of Electors in a given state is equal to the total number of representatives in Congress of that state (House + the 2 Senators) This also served to keep a relative balance between the small states and the more populous states. In a popular election, Rhode Island very small population would be virtually ignored over say the more populous New York State. Basically the ration is more leveled. This was the theory. While it is true today that many of the small states are ignored by one party (since they are traditionally one-sided in their allegiance in the winner take all format), it is really in the recent years of virtual 50-50 deadlocks that the small states have been shown to be most valuable (any single state in 2000 would have swung the election to Gore). There are many critics of the system, but as yet there has been no real challenge to the electoral system since it would require a Constitutional Amendment which would necessarily have to pass a ratification of many of those same small states. So to make clear the example: I am a registered voter in Utah's 2nd Congressional District. (Utah has 3 districts plus the 2 Senators for a total of 5 Electoral Votes). When I mark my ballot I'm voting for John Kerry and John Edwards, but technically I'm voting for 5 Democratic party Electors pledged to vote in the Electoral College for Kerry-Edwards. In comparison someone voting for Bush-Cheney technically votes for 5 Republican electors pledged to vote for Bush-Cheney. Which ever candidate received the most votes in a state (with a few exceptions which I'll mention below), that slate of electors is chosen to represent the state at the Electoral College and cast their votes for the ticket. There are two exceptions: Maine and Nebraska which handle their electors a bit differently. In these states, the winning ticket in each district receives an electoral vote for that district, then the overall popular vote winner received the other 2 votes. This has the potential of producing a split result in the state. For instance Kerry could win 3 Maine Electoral votes and Bush 1 vote if Bush won one of Maine's 2 districts but Kerry won overall. Colorado is voting for a change to the "Maine-Nebraska" system on its ballot this year, which if successful could change the outcome of the national election. Ron's First Prediction Alert: If ths initiative passes, and it just might, the Republicans will launched a vigorous court challenge to overturn it. Colorado is a highly split state politically- if this system had existed in 2000 Bush would have only won 5 of the 8 electoral votes for Colorado which would have meant Gore would have won the national election with or without Florida. Stay tuned for this one election night A candidate must win a majority of the electoral votes (or 270 total) to win the election. If no candidate wins 270 Electoral votes, the election is thrown into the House of Representatives and once there, each states Congressional delegation casts 1 vote for President. Under the current Congressional makeup, it can be assumed President Bush would be relected easily since the GOP controls 30 state delegations to the Democrats 15 (4 states have equal representations Minnesota, Mississippi, Texas, and Wisconsin; while one state, Vermont, has an independent representative). So technically, President Bush would only need 269 votes to be re-elected-this becomes important when I lay out the scenarios later. The Vice President is then chosen by the Senate. The Senate is more evenly divided with 19 states are controled by GOP and 17 by Democrats; 13 states have split partisan contigents and Vermont (yet again) has 1 Democrat and 1 Independent (the former Republican Jim Jeffords! who cause such fun in 2001). Again see Scenario #3 below to watch the fun begin. One last thing about the Electoral College before we move on. Since a Constitutional Amendment removing the Electoral College seems unlikely, many states are considering the Colorado initiative as a means to change the system. In my opinion, this is highly dangerous. Just consider the gerrymandering of Texas districts under Republican control and we could see similar plagues throughout the country. On to the Scenarios and Predictions (gulp!) I'll lay out several scenarios of how the election could play out. I'll take into account the current polling numbers, historical trends, some anectdotal evidence that could skew the numbers, a few hunches, and probably a few blind shots in the dark that will make me look foolish on Wednesday morning. Current Polling: Most polls predict a close outcome in the popular vote. If we look at the broad scope (a poll of polls if you will), Bush has about a 3% point lead nationally. we must take a critical look at these polls however, because they might reveal some methodological problems. First, these polls generally take into account Likely Voters. The current projection holds that there could be between 9 and 12 million New Voters who will show up this Tuesday. This makes predictability upon these polls a little more difficult. Second, is the Nader factor. It is impossible at this point to judge what effect Nader will have on the race. In current polling models he seems to make little difference, drawing only 1% nationally. There is, in fact, little change in 2-way Bush-Kerry models, and 3-way Bush-Kerry-Nader models. However Nader's impact will come in the close battleground states in which he is on the ballot where he could take 2 or 3% points from Kerry (more than the national average would predict). Current polls put the undecided margin at 4%. This too can change the outcome obviously. So where do these numbers point us. The Elite Eight: Taking all of the above into account, there seems to be strong evidence that the race has come down to 8 battle-ground states (their electoral votes in parentheis) that should decide the race. New Hampshire(4), New Mexico(5), Iowa(7), Minnesota(10), Wisconsin(10), Florida(27), Ohio(20), and Pennsylvania(21) (the last three have been nicknamed "FLOHPA" which trust me, you will see more than enough times in the next 5 days). Most of the state races have pretty much hardened, and though there are still some states that could flip (such as Nevada, Colorado, Arkansas), conventional wisdom (and we get in trouble when we go with that too much) has Bush solid in 27 states for a total of 227 votes, while Kerry is solid in 15 states, and the District of Columbia for a total of 207 votes. So 104 votes up for grabs in the Elite Eight. Currently Bush has slight leads in Iowa, Wisconsin, Florida, and New Mexico (3 of which all went narrowly for Gore in 2000). Kerry has equally thin leads in Pennsylvania, Ohio, Minnesota, and New Hampshire (Bush won New Hampshire and Ohio in 2000). Let's look at these one by one Iowa- Gore carried the state, which is traditionally a Democratic state, by only 5%. It's rural Republican base however has been trending more solidly in recent years and the state as a whole has been moving toward the GOP. If Bush holds this state it is a big problem for Kerry. Likewise Wisconsin, which narrowly went for Gore in 2000, is another traditionally Democratic state that has been trending more Republican. A Bush win here combined with Iowa will mean Kerry would need an almost perfect scenario in the other states to win. New Mexico, yet another close Gore win in 2000, has seen steady support for Bush. This is one that I think could flip back to Kerry largely if the Hispanic vote turns out in very high numbers. The Governor Bill Richardson, a former Clinton cabinet secretary is also an Hispanic and has been given the task of winning the state for Kerry. While ever state in this race clearly is a must win for either candidate, this would be a tough loss for Kerry. Florida (ah Florida!). What can you say about Florida. It has maintained a narrow lead for Bush throughout, however this may be one of the places that New Voters really make a difference. Traditionally heavy Democratic counties are showing a larger increase in voter registration that in Republican counties. If the numbers are accurate, and these new registered voters, especially non-Cuban hispanic voters, show up in large numbers, Kerry could take Florida. New Hampshire, is one of the states that I can clearly see flipping from 2000 to Kerry. New England voters tend to like New England candidates. This isn't safe by any means, but it would be the least surprising of the turnaround 2000 states. Minnesota is, like Vermont, a radical state. They are very independent minded, can change their opinion swiftly, and are very unpredictable. Though Minnesota has been traditionally a Democratic state, the Bush campaign has really been trying to take this one away from Kerry. This also could be a state where 'independent' voters actually break for Bush in contrast to the overall independent voting trends nationally- those crazy Minnesotans. Pennsylvania has long been THE battleground state. The huge urban centers of Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, the vast rural middle of the state, all are pieces of a very polarized state. How else to account for a Pro-Choice Governor (Ed Rendell) and a Right Wing Conservative Senator (Rick Santorum)?? Pennsylvania is a must-win for Kerry. Without it, I think it will be impossible for him to win without major upsets elsewhere. Finally, Ohio. Ohio has become the center of the political universe this year. It could become the Florida of 2000 with no winner being declared for sometime, and a flurry of lawsuits and recounts on the horizon. Ohio is where President Bush's domestic agenda is tested to its limits. Ohio has arguably suffered most in the Bush administration, losing manufacturing jobs at a higher rate than almost anywhere else. There has likely been more money spent in Ohio this election than ever before, and it is the state the Kerry campaign would most like to take from Bush who won the state in 2000. Scenario #1: The Bush Landslide Historically, incumbent presidents do not win close elections. They either lose big or win big. This of course could be the election that changes history, but in this scenario, Bush's national numbers hold firm. Voters, who have place Iraq and Terror as the primary focus of the election believe almost 2 to 1 that Bush is better on this than Kerry. Bush holds his 27 states, wins Florida, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Ohio, Iowa, and New Mexico and defeats Kerry 316-232 (also Bush could snag one Maine district for a 317-231 win). Scenario #2: The Kerry Landslide Independent and swing voters in the midwest break significanly for Kerry. Hispanics in New Mexico and Florida brnig Kerry victories there as well. In this scenario, Kerry takes "FLOHPA", Minnesota, Wisconsin, New Mexico and New Hampshire and defeats Bush 314-234. Scenario #3: Oh Dear God Let's Call It A Draw This is the most complex, but increasingly more possible outcome. Here's how it works. Kerry wins Ohio, Pennsylvania, Minnesota(or Wisconsin), plus Iowa and New Hampshire, while Bush wins Florida, Wisconsin(or Minnesota), plus New Mexico...egads, 269 to 269. Now this is the point that the Maine district could come into play, or even a Colorado split if that holds. There's even a possibility that if thrown into the House, Bush would almost assuredly win, but the divided Senate select Edwards as the Vice President. This is the nightmare scenario (or if you're a political junkie like me the DREAM scenario). Of course if the election were thrown into the house, Bush would likely win and the Senate, ever mindful of trying to be bipartisan would likely vote Cheney (but those of us who marvelled at then Vice President Al Gore as Senate President having to oversee the certification of his own contested defeat in 2000 would love the irony of Dick Cheney in a similar scenario. Of couse the even greater moment would be Cheney casting a tie breaking vote electing HIMSELF!!!! take that sports fans) Scenario #'s 4 & 5: Too Close for Comfort In these two, the status quo doesn't change much. In one version Bush maintains his 4 states and defeats Kerry 276-262. In other one of the non-FLOHPA states flips to Kerry, (maybe Wisconsin) and Kerry wins 272-266. If you've stayed awake this long, I'm grateful. I've gone back and forth on this for so long. As much as I'd like to believe the evidence that the New Voters and Independents are breaking so heavily for Kerry, I can't bring myself to believe in it all that much. The edge in any close race usually goes to the incumbent. In uncertain times, voters tend to go with what they know over what they don't. As I look at the situation, as dispassionately as I can, the facts are that Bush has more room to play, and the margin of error for Kerry is slim. The places that Bush leads I sense he's more likely to hold than the places that Kerry does, and even if all holds as is, Bush still has the numbers. The biggest problem for Bush that I see is that his ceiling number of 49%. As bad as Kerry got in the campaign, or as negative as the Bush administration went on him, Bush still never crept above 49%. If I believed Nader was going to take 4% of the vote, I'd say it wasn't a problem for Bush since 49% would win easily. However I see the popular vote totals really close. Still, this race isn't won on the popular vote, as this whole post has made clear. In 2000, I predicted a split between the Popular Vote and the Electoral College (genius prediction when it hadn't happened in 100 years). Of course my genius was short lived since I called the popular vote for Bush and Electoral vote for Gore and it was just the opposite. I'm almost tempted to make the same prediction this time. But just "almost". As much as I hate to admit it, since I'm a Kerry supporter, I think there's too much hill to climb. I hope against hope that the perfect storm of undecided, new, and independent voters break his way, but it's only a hope. I think the Bush team has done good work in the midwest on stealing some swing states from the Democrats. I think Iowa, Wisconsin will go Bush. I also have to admit that I think New Mexico will go his way. While I think Kerry will hold Pennsylvania and maybe Ohio and Minnestoa, I think he could lose one of the three. Right now I'm going with Scenario #4. Bush wins his 27 states plus Florida, Wisconsin, Iowa and New Mexico giving him 31 states and 276 electoral votes to John Kerry's 15 states and DC plus Ohio, Pennsylvania, Minnesota, and New Hampshire for 262 electoral votes. I think the popular vote will break down Bush 50%, Kerry 49%, Nader 1% with Bush getting around 57.5 million votes, Kerry 56.5 million and Nader about 1.5 million. There you have it. I hope I'm wrong, and I won't be surprised if I am. I won't be surprised to see Kerry or Bush roll off a big win (Scenarios 1 or 2). I won't be surprised to see Colorado or Maine skew the results. I won't be surprised to see a number of court challenges to the results. Expect the unexpected I guess. What I'd like to see, no matter what the outcome, is the peaceful transition (or resumation) of power. I'd like to see Americans proud of their system and the leaders they choose again. I'd like to see people around the world marvel at the way we shift from one party to another, one administration to another, without military coups, riots in the streets, or suppression. I'd like to see the system that we tout as the best, the pattern for other nations to adopt, work. Then I'd like to see us focus on the problems facing society such as Poverty, Discrimination, Terrorism, and Hate, not with demonization of opposing views, but with the shared hope of a better tomorrow for all. I'd like to see America restored to a place of respect and admiration, proud of our accomplishments but humbled by our good fortune. A beacon to the world of possibility. I'd like America to return to the vision of John Kennedy that harkens the words of Isiah to "undo the heavy burdens ... and to let the oppressed go free." I'd like to see American help create a world "where the strong are just and the weak secure and the peace preserved"...With a good conscience our only sure reward, with history the final judge of our deeds...knowing that here on earth God's work must truly be our own."

The Vanishing Week Edition

That was the week that was...I think so at least...I'm just not sure. This week has gone by so fast that I'm not even sure it actually happened. It is already Friday afternoon!?!? I had three assignments this week and they are all now in the hands of professors (or more pointedly, teaching assistants) and I will hopefully pull through with a decent grade. (crosses fingers) I also have a presentation Monday for Melville's "Bartleby, the Scrivener", which is a short story that I think I've read a half dozen times in my life- it seems every other class from High School until now has had this story as part of the syllabus. Other than all that school work, this week was also all about watching the collapse of the New York Yankees. Wow. The house is really cozy this week. Shell worked on the living room a bit more and she wants some retakes of the pictures so hopefully next week we'll have a few new ones. It's just nice to be able to walk into almost every room now and it actually be free of cardboard boxes...hurray! Now all we need are guests (which is a not so subtle hint to those of you in the area) It is cold and damp here this week as well. Misty rain almost every day, temps in the mid-teens, blah. I was able to take the dogs to the park today though. They were very excited about that. Dixie had an exciting week as she finally caught up with one of the moles living in the backyard. She seemed very proud to have used what remnants of the terrier part she has in her blood to capture the critter. Last night I finally got to a good cleaning of my office, organizing it and it is much more conducive to studying and writing papers. As you can tell, this week hasn't been terribly eventful or exciting...but it was productive and for that I'm grateful. Still working on some political posts which I'll have out soon. Till then Cheers

The Insomnia Edition

Another week come and gone as I creep closer to yet another birthday. I know I'm not old, nor do I feel old, which I hear tell is the key (of course that is usually from people who are either really young, in which case it is patronizing, or really old, in which case it sounds a bit like wishful thinking...but whatever). I'm having yet another extended bout of insomnia, which as some of you know manifests itself in my inability to get more than about 3 hours of sleep a night followed by a raging restlessness that frustrates me until I am forced to get up and work on my history paper or write my weekly blog entry (lucky you the benefit of my crises!) I envy my wife right now who is sound asleep, with snoring puppies at her feet, probably dreaming of an all expense paid trip to IKEA, while I struggle to make sense of my week and entertain you (a feat which I must admit I'm sadly failing at this point). But fear not, if words may fail me I DO have pictures to augment my weak prose. This has been a pleasantly short week, Canadian Thanksgiving was this past Monday, so Shell and I both had the day off. Which was good since we had to recuperate from Thanksgiving dinner and the turkey hangover. We went into Toronto to have dinner with the family at Tim and Lesley's house and a good time was had by all...especially Quinn and Leah who had a sugar fix courtesy of just about everyone giving them treats (next year I recommend fashioning a large hamster wheel for them to run on and powering the city via their energy!) It's difficult for Shell and I to have moved out of the city since it makes it harder to see those two little rascals, but hopefully we will be having them for some sleepovers soon. A really interesting find this week in our house. Shell found 2 pages from a old newspaper wrapped within something she was unpacking. It's the Toronto Mail and Empire dated February 17th, 1926!!! Anyone who knows me knows how cool I think this is :) One of the pages is a financial page (and since this is 3 years before the Wall Street crash I am going to try and compare some stock prices when I find some extra time. One of the things that is really fascinating is this advertisement for a cruise line: Clark's Famous Cruises Books now open for following 1927 cruises Jan. 29, To the Mediterranean 62 days, $600 to $1700 Feb. 5, South American and Merditerranean in Combination 86 days $800 to $2800 Jan. 19, Around the World Over four months $1250 to $2900 They also listed a 1926 summer cruise to Norway and Western Mediterranean 53 days for $550 to $1250 on the SS Lancastria The trip includes stops in Lisbon, Spain, Tangier, Italy, Riviera, Sweden, Norway fjords, Scotland, Berlin, Paris, London. Now here's the REALLY fascinating part. The SS Lancastria is a very historic ship. 14 years and 4 months after this ad ran in the paper, the Lancastria was sunk (June 17th, 1940) in what has been described the worst maritime disaster Britain suffered in World War II. On June 17, 1940 the Lancastria was being used by the military to evacuate British troops and refugees from France in the wake of Nazi occupation of Paris 4 days earlier. It is estimated that between 6000 to 9000 people were crowded aboard the Lancastria, 5 miles off the coast of St. Nazairre when it was bombed by German aircraft and sunk. There were only approximately 2500 survivors. An official report by the British government has been sealed and remains so until 2040. Photo of the Lancastria shortly after the German air strike-
Last photo of the Lancastria as she sank-
To say the least it is an interesting story and one I'm going to try and explore further. Now for Home Reno Corner news- The living room has really taken an upswing and I'm finally able to post a few photos for you. I am encouraged to remind you that there are still decorative touches not yet in place, but overall the sense of the style is at hand. Shell scored a free sofa donation from a co-worker. I am told it fits in with the style (like I'd know). So some before and after pictures follow. The color on the fireplace wall has changed dramatically and though it doesn't show in the pictures, the other walls color has changed as well though slightly less dramatic. Before-
After-

Before-
After-
I will have a few more as they become available. In the meantime I also thought it time that I share a photo (or two) of me in my work environs. As I've written a great deal about it, I thought I'd take a picture of myself to show you a bit of what I look like when I'm working. I warn you these pictures are quite frightening...parental discretion is advised! First the face of frozen fear. One of the hardest parts for me is that my facial hair freezes quite rapidly (remember its about -30 in there).

Now a wider shot of me (and therefore far less scary) that shows my freezer suit. You can imagine that a person of my size, layered with this bulky suit, is not the swiftest or most mobile. Yet I manage pretty well for an old man.
Well that's all the time I have for this week. I'm still trying to put together a Politics 101 post for you dealing with the Electoral College since I've had some Canadians ask about it recently, also I have thoughts about the debates since they are now completed. I will work on this in between my paper which is due in a few days (yikes). Until then...

Another Tough Week

Well it was another tough week in our little St.Amant world. Our beloved family dog, Maddie, passed away this week. She was a tough little girl who traveled all over North America with me from Virginia to Utah and back again and she even made it to Canada for our wedding last year. She was a sweet puppy who was the offspring of our other family pugs, Tiger and Precious who both passed away a few years ago also. When I was living back at my parents' house, the year before I could move to Canada, she would lay in front of the door and wait for me to come home from work. She really loved my Mom and Dad. She became Mom's dog basically and companion when my Dad goes to work. And as much as I know he hates to admit his soft side, my Dad loved Maddie too. He would give her a snack when he got home from work and I know it was a highlight of her day (and his too). We miss her! In other news, and since everyone invariably asks...school is going well but very stressful. I decided to drop one of my classes this semester because the workload, in relation to the other classes I felt was too much and risked dragging down my work. So I'm hoping that it is addition through subtraction in a way. Otherwise I'm enjoying things and am really being challenged (especially in my Historiography class which deals mainly with criticism and theory...it's mindblowing trust me) Hey my Utes are undefeated!!! I miss Utah (I sound like a broken record I know). My lovely and wonderful friend Laura is having another baby out there and it kills me (and Shelley) not to be able to see her. (This is where normally I would take a cheap shot at Laura's BYU Cougars...but I'm not going to do that..nope nope nope) Heh. Home Project News...which seems to be one of the most anticipated parts of this post (except to Steve Snyder) Shell has been a busy little hobbit. She completely tore apart her workshop so that she could get it ready to use in the winter (which is fast approaching of course). She also finished working on my office and reorganized some things to create a better space, and got an awesome window treatment for it.


So since this is a long weekend here in Canada (Canadian Thanksgiving!), we are of course scheduled to the gills with stuff. Shell went garage sale shopping this morning all gussied up with her new hairdo...mmmrow Now she's working on her half of the basement trying to get it ready for sewing projects this winter. We are nearing completion of the living room and have apparently designs on a sofa from one of her co-workers. I'm still not allowed to take photos of the living room (I swear my wife has more rules than the Bush and Kerry campaigns about photo-ops!). However I'm confident that some will be coming soon. It has been painted and there is some decor, but not enough apparently to merit photography. Stay tuned. I have many thoughts on the debates and the election which will hopefully be coming your way in the next day or so, but at the moment...I've got some reading (Matthew Evangelista's Unarmed Forces: The Transnational Movement to End the Cold War) and some football (Notre Dame plays Stanford in an hour or so!) Until next dispatch!