2008: A Look Ahead

I decided the other day that I hadn't written anything meaningful, politically, since last November. There has been a great deal to write about but I didn't have anything significantly thought-provoking beyond just my personal commentary on issues of the day (and just how pretentious does that sound anyway). Since I know many people skip over my old end of post political commentary I decided to just throw some small essays up individually, as I had done sporadically in the past, on a more regular basis. Considering that politics is what drives me, and I've enjoyed bridging the gap between my Canadian readers and my American readers, I'll try to do some more comparitive studies in the future as well- though I must confess that my knowledge base in Canadian issues is not as well grounded as I'd like it to be (at least historically base knowledge). I thought I'd start sort of where I left off, with a look ahead to 2008 and the next Presidential election, especially since there has been some significant movement on the part of many players. The GOP is more intriguing so I'll begin there. For the last six years, every word from the Vice President was rather forceful that he had no ambition to seek the Presidency. But lately there has been some minor rumbling that perhaps he is rethinking this position. A Cheney run would instantly stall many other GOP plans since he would take up a sizeable portion of fundraising that many are counting on in an 'open' race. A Cheney nomination is hard to predict since his health would be a chief issue, but to many die-hard Bush supporters it would be seen as securing the Bush legacy. For the moment, the safe presumption is that he won't run, but he remains a factor. The leading candidate is probably Rudy Guiliani. He, and probably he alone, has enough to win despite some of his more moderate positions that clash with the right-wing religous conservative base. The more pro-life, pro-evangelical candidates he faces early in the process the better since a split in that vote, alongside his moderate "voice of reason" stance could lock up the nomination rather easily. By the same token, the less moderate GOP faces in the race, the better his chances as well. If Sens. McCain and Hagel opt not to run, Guiliani can run to the center and place himself in an excellent position for the national campaign. The rest of the field reads like a who's who of Republican Senators. Current Majority Leader Bill Frist (TN) is almost assuredly running. He has already announced that he won't seek re-election in 2006, and will likley focus on the nomination without the baggage of 2 years of Senate votes that other candidates will endure. Frist has been pushing hard to gain the confidence of the religous right base of GOP primary voters through his role in the Schaivo case, and his insistence on changing the filibuster rules in the Senate to push through Bush's blocked judicial nominees, and perhaps open the way for a more right-wing nominee to the Supreme Court. Because of the grass roots power of Evangelical conservatives in the GOP, Frist has a strong hand to play in the race. Rick Santorum (PA) is another Senator who has practically announced his intention to run. Santorum is the darling of religious conservatives and probably has more bona fides with them that does Frist. Santorum, however, faces re-election in 2006 and is likely being challenged the very popular pro-life Democrat Bob Casey, Jr. A Santorum loss would probably doom his chances for the party nomination. George Allen, Jr. (VA) is mulling a run as well. He too could battle Frist and Santorum for right wing votes in the primaries. Allen also faces re-election in 2006 and looks safe unless current Virginia Democratic Governor Mark Warner challenges him (Warner himself is mulling a presidential bid). John McCain (AZ) looks like he could challenge once again. The darling of the moderates in the GOP and national independents, McCain is a lightning rod. In my opinion he represents the strongest potential nominee to take on the Democrats in the general election, but his individuality and status as a non-ideologue dampens his chances to win his party's nomination. Likewise Chuck Hagel (NE). A moderate mid-western Republican, Hagel is seen as too willing to compromise (a true uniter not divider) by the far right-wing. A McCain-Hagel ticket I think has the potential to be unbeatable in a national election. But the GOP base which selects the nominees would have to prove a heavy dose of pragmatism that in the last few years has been absent. Outside possibilites are Jeb Bush and Condi Rice. The Democratic field is clearly led by Senator Clinton (NY). If she chooses to run, which looks more likely as time passes, she is the prohibitive favorite. She's extremely popular with the left wing base of the party, and has the fundraising capability of putting herself several steps above her opponents. A large field could work in her favor, splitting the "anybody but Hillary" voters, but could also turn out to be a chance to pile-on (similar to what happened to Howard Dean in the lead up to Iowa). Clinton's chances are very much tied with her fellow New Yorker Guiliani. In current polling she loses New York to Guiliani which makes winning the electoral college extremely difficult. John Edwards has been running for the nomination from the second the networks called the election for Bush. In a large field, Edwards faces the same problem he faced in the 2004 primaries- too many alternatives. In my post-mortem of the 2004 race, I noted how the candidacy of General Wesley Clark doomed Edwards chances, by splitting the conservative Democratic votes and keeping Edwards from earning Oklahoma and perhaps some other states in the race against Kerry. The sooner the race becomes Edwards versus Hillary the better for him should people decided Clinton can't win a national race against the GOP. Sen. Evan Bayh (IN) is a conservative Democrats who hails from a traditionally Republican state. A proven winner among independents and conservatives, Bayh is the sort of Democrat who would do better outside of the party nomination. If Hillary is deemed to radioactive, and Edwards seen as a failed national candidate, Bayh could secure some support. Sen. Joe Biden (DE) is a talented politician with a disarming personality. In practice he's very much like a Democratic version of John McCain. Unfortunately he offers little in the way of electoral math coming from a small state in the mid-Atlantic. In my opinion, though I like Biden a great deal, he'll never win the nomination. Sen. Russ Feingold (WI) another centrist from the midwest, Feingold has little national exposure other than his name attached to the key piece of campaign finance legistlation. Gov. Tom Vilsack (IA) was considered for the Vice Presidential slot in 2004. Though he probably lacks the sort of national name recognition that Clinton and even Edwards have, the fact that he hails from the first caucus state means he has a step on the rest of the contenders. Gov. Ed Rendell (PA) is a popular governor from a large state. In any other election cycle he would make an ideal candidate, however in a crowded field, dominated by Clinton, this might be the wrong time. Other notables Govs. Mark Warner (VA) and Bill Richardson (NM) Heading into the election in 2008, clearly Guiliani and Clinton dominate the field. Many in the media salivate at the match-up, which was supposed to happen in 2000 until Guiliani dropped out when diagnosed with cancer. That contest that never was actually led to Guiliani's remaining in the Mayor's office on 9/11 which brought him to instant national exposure and popularity. A Guiliani vs Clinton presidential campaign would probably cost the Democrats New York and throw off the electoral count to the benefit of the GOP, making it virtually impossible to win. Of course Clinton is married to the greatest politician of the generation and if anyone can overcome conventional wisdom it's a candidate named Clinton. For the first time in many years New York would be a swing state (THE swing state). At least it would be interesting to watch.